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Affymetrix 3rd Quarter 2005Posted by Randy on: 2005-10-26 11:29:12 in category:
Investments [ Print | Permalink / 0 Comment(s) ] Affymetrix 3rd Quarter 2005 Affymetrix stumbles again. They produced another ruff quarter, and reduced their forecast for next quarter. It appears to us that Affymetrix is holding, or even possibly increasing its market share. They described the problem with the quarter as an issue with capacity being restrained in its new products. Affymetrix is riding a double growth curve. They benefit from Moore's Law through a rapid increase in the density of their gene chips, and the application space is also growing at a great rate placing them, in my opinion, as the most valuable position in the genomic market. If $10-20 million of demand is not being filled for each of the two most recent quarters due to capacity being restrained, that means possibly early next year Affymetrix might have 10-20 million over and above its normal demand. In my internal modeling, Affymetrix is still gaining control in the genomic space. This gives me confidence that their shortfall is a transitional issue. For most high growth companies that I have followed, almost all have demonstrated some kind of transition problems. It appears our original reports were correct and the company has many of what we believe to be monopolistic advantages. Pease refer to Affymetrix "Seeds of Change in DNA/Genomicsâ??(AFFX - $21.17) available at http://www.durig.com The leading company that helps to develop many of the hidden values of the genomic research into the main street market has tremendous potential. It appears that AFFX is the leader of this very large migration. Since I last reviewed the company, Affymetrix added close to twenty software companies building on their genome standard. In my modeling, this is a very important feature. This tells me that many software companies, in their effort to grow their own sales, believe that building on the Affymetrix standard will help them achieve their software goals, This increases the moat around Affymetrix or barriers to completion, and down the road should help accelerate Affymetrix business. Randy Durig currently owns affymetrix and holds it in his monopoly technology portfolio Past performance is not a guarantee for future returns. Durig Capital LLC may only do business if registered in your state. Durig Capital is a registered investment advisor. You can contact us at toll free 971-732-5119 or http://www.durig.com Durig Capital National Performance Rankings: #7 U.S. Equity, Large Capitalization Blend, Ranked by 3 year annualized returns, 2nd Quarter 2005, By Money Manager Review #3 U.S. Equity, Large Capitalization Blend, Ranked by 1 year annual returns, 1st Quarter 2005, By Money Manager Review #2 U.S. Equity, Large Capitalization Blend, Ranked by 1 year annual return 4th Quarter 2004, By Money Manager Review Those looking for early retirement we recommend. http://www.retirement-plan.us/retire_early.php |
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